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Mozilla has decided to focus on ‘better machine decision making’ as an  ‘impact goal’ that will inform internet health fellowships, campaigns and thought leadership work in the internet health movement over the coming years.
'''''As of March 5th, 2019, this page has been replaced with [https://wiki.mozilla.org/Foundation/AI Mozilla Foundation AI]'''''
 
The aim is to have a thematic goal with a clear theory of change that Mozilla and its allies can go after in a distributed, decentralized manner -- but with clear markers and milestones that allow everyone to see progress. This goal will build on the “your data and you” theme that Mozilla used in 2018. As with that theme, ~60% of Mozilla’s movement building program resources will go towards one goal over the next few years.
 
This wiki is meant to house Mozilla's up-to-date thinking and will be regularly updated. What follows is a list of the key documents that inform this thinking as well as the why, what and how of following through on it.
 
=Key Documents=
 
==Project documentation==
 
* [https://mzl.la/IssueBriefFeb2019 Updated better machine decision making issue brief] (February 2019)
* [https://mzl.la/2019ImpactGoalActivities 2019 current and planned activities] (February 2019)
 
==Posts and articles==
 
(context)
 
* [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5bVZOUdNPZM Orlando All Hands talks on ‘better machine decision making] (December 2018)
* [https://www.cnn.com/2019/01/15/opinions/artificial-intelligence-ethical-responsible-programming-surman/index.html "How to keep AI from turning into the Terminator" CNN Article]
* [https://medium.com/read-write-participate/improving-internet-health-what-and-how-can-we-win-together-c2dae7a5cf19 Blog post], "Improving Internet Health: What (and How) Can We Win Together?" Initial Blog Post
* [https://medium.com/read-write-participate/slowing-down-asking-questions-looking-ahead-265f6b99810d "Slowing Down, Asking Questions, Looking Ahead" Subsequent better machine decision making Blog Post]
 
== Resources (or active projects?) ==
 
* [https://mzl.la/ImpactGoalLitReview Literature review on better machine decision making] (February 2019)
* Responsible CS Challenge?
* What else?
 
== Process and project management ==
* [https://drive.google.com/file/d/1cExHEoEpaHKJhgTKWp2h50xvXMWeY76E/view Impact goal summary] (November 2018)
* Better machine decision making issue brief (November 2018) https://mzl.la/IssueBriefv01
* [https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Bl-h9d1IrhBXOskacm8eYkPteNMdxlN2/view Existing MoFo Theory of Change] (January 2018)
 
Sub things might be:
- how we got to this focus
- impact goal 2019 project timeline
 
=Why=
 
Artificial intelligence (AI) has long occupied an outsized role in our collective imagination, in everything from pulp science fiction novels to James Cameron blockbusters. Perhaps humankind is moving toward an oppressive artificial superintelligence. In the meantime, artificial intelligence is already woven into our everyday lives. It provides us with things we love and need, from productivity advice to movie recommendations. Yet, when we don't carefully consider its impact on our democracies, our justice systems and our well-being, we open ourselves up to real risks.
 
Mozilla seeks to be a part of this careful consideration. The last three years have been about creating a solid foundation of work - defining the internet health frame, clear program offerings, and an effective planning/execution process. With that work nearing completion, it is time to point Mozilla's resources at answering the question, "What concrete improvements to the health of the internet do we want to make over the next 3-5 years?"
 
Based on extensive engagement with staff, allies, experts and the board, it has been decided that ‘better machine decision making’ is the area to focus on. This goal was chosen because of the belief that it can:
* Leverage the ‘agenda setting’ influence by asking tough questions about AI and adding nuance and specificity to the public debate.
* Focus work in an area of further impact, leveraging the work started across all program areas over the past three years.
* Increase the number and quality of collaborations across Mozilla and the internet health movement by helping define specific areas to work with others to have impact.
* Help reach more people through messages and calls to action by increasing the clarity, specificity and relevance of the messages.
* Offer clear milestones and outputs to measure and report out on progress against the intended impact along the way.
 
=What=
In the first phase, we explored a wide range of potential impact goals through staff engagement, external interviews and board discussions. Further information on Phase One is available below and through the key documents links.
 
Phase two of the impact project is designed to drive towards more specificity around the work and outcomes we’ll take on in pursuit of this goal.
 
The goals of phase two are as follows:
* Build on efforts already underway by staff and partners within the internet health movement.
* Clearly define the kind of impact we want to have over the coming years with a compelling sketch in early Q1 and an updated theory of change in Q2.
* Refine the language around ‘better machine decision making,’ crafting a compelling, specific vision of an alternative, positive future.
* Identify key partners and allies to work with on this topic, and start to define shared outcomes and projects that we can pursue together in H2.
* Provide the raw material for initial public messaging about ‘better machine decision making,’with the aim of communicating on this issue starting in Q1.
 
We will go after these goals in an open and collaborative manner, engaging staff, allies, partners and supporters as we define the issues we’ll focus on over the coming years -- and, of course looking for ways to advance the work together as we put this focus into action.
 
==== Open Collaboration ====
More to come on this section in March  
 
=How=
 
Key activities right now include: 
 
==== Interview series with experts ====
We’re launching an additional series of interviews with global experts on machine decision making to strengthen our understanding in key areas.  In particular, we’ll be reaching out to experts who work outside the NA/EU context to understand how AI is taking shape in Africa, South America and Asia so we can better understand how we might support work in those regions; those who are working on gender equity and inclusion in this space; as well as technical experts who can help us understand the source and opportunities to move towards the goal on a technological level. 
 
We’ll draw insights from these interviews into this wiki, as well ask interviewees for recommendations of source material for our literature review (see below). If interested, check out the interview questions and list of interviewees.  Feel free to suggest interviewees that have expertise in the areas outlined above by adding to the interview spreadsheet.
 
The timeframe for this work is January-April.
 
==== Literature Review ====
Many organizations and individuals have researched and published recommendations regarding AI and machine decision making. Our literature review seeks to uncover those and identify themes, as well as gaps in the current recommendations that may warrant further research by us. 
 
The key questions the literature review seeks to answer are:
* What are the top ten challenges (and proposed solutions, with a focus on policy interventions, product standards and consumer behavior) that machine decision making poses to internet health (privacy & security, decentralization, web literacy, digital inclusion & openness)?
* What are the different terms being used to describe machine decision making and how are they being used?
* What are current legislative frameworks that are being proposed on this topic globally and what has the reception to those frameworks been?
* What ethical guidelines already exist in this area and what has the reception to those ideas been? 
 
See the key documents section for access to the literature review overview and current source material.
 
The timeframe for this work is January-March.
 
==== Current & Planned 2019 Work on Machine Decision Making ====
This doc provides a platform for us to share and understand in greater depth how we’re already leveraging existing programs towards the impact goal, as well as how we’re stretching our programs and thinking into 2019, so we can begin talking about this work with the board, partners and the press. Feel free to check out this document.
 
The timeframe for this work is Jan-February.
 
==== Theory of Change ====
This work is focused on using the Theory of Change tool we’ve already developed for internet health to define a set of more specific, measurable long-term and short-term outcomes for our work on ‘better machine decision making.’
 
This work will be drawn from the insights and information generated from the interviews, literature review, and current work overview, as well as additional research if needed.
 
The process will include opportunities for staff learning and contribution. We are still developing the detailed Theory of Change development plan and will update staff, which will include staff learning and contribution components. 
 
The goal is for the project to be completed by June and support H2 and 2020 action planning at All Hands.  The timeframe for this work is Feb-June.
 
=Background Work=
 
==== What is an impact goal? ====
 
<big><big>'''''A specific ambition to measure and focus Mozilla Foundation's internet health programs over the next few years.'''''</big></big>
 
Using the model we started in 2018 with the ‘your data and you’ theme, we will point 50 - 60% of fellows, campaigns and other program resources at this goal.
 
A strong impact goal has four key qualities. It’s audacious, tackling the big issues of the day at a high level. It’s concrete, describing specific, tangible change. It’s targeted, describing the key players involved. And it’s inspirational, motivating us to roll up our sleeves and make it happen. In short: Mozilla’s impact goal should be ambitious but attainable, and have the potential to send positive ripples across millions of users’ online lives.
 
==== History ====
 
As we look at the next few years of Mozilla’s work, it’s time to begin mapping our course forward. The last three years have been about creating a solid foundation for our work - the internet health frame, clear program offerings, and an effective planning/execution process. 
 
Looking forward, it’s critical that we use this strong foundation to focus on a specific set of outcomes that we can design and measure our progress against. Internet health remains a critical articulation of the broad change we’re seeking in the world.  Now, it’s critical we also answer the question, “What concrete improvements to the health of the internet do we want to make over the next 3-5 years?”
 
Since we launched the “your data & you” theme in 2018, there’s been positive feedback about the value of a theme and the broad topic area of data, as well as a request for us to continue to invest in this area beyond 2018.  At the same time, staff, external partners and funders have urged us to be more specific about what this investment focus on data means for our work and our intended outcomes.
 
<big>Three reasons we want an impact goal:</big>
* '''Focus and measure''' the impact of our internet health programs.
* '''Galvanize allies''' by giving us something concrete to work on together.
* Shift narrative '''from ‘fear’ to ‘ambition’''' -- and, eventually, ‘winning’.
 
==== Goal of this project ====
 
The Impact project is designed to answer the question, <big>'''''“What concrete improvements to the health of the internet do we want to make over the next 3-5 years?”'''''</big> through a transparent, participatory process involving staff and external experts/partners. The specific goals of this project include:
 
* '''Crafting a compelling, specific vision of an alternative, positive future that builds on the current “your data and you” theme'''
 
* '''Defining a set of specific goals to achieve that impact through clear milestones we can design and measure against'''
 
* '''Developing a set of messages for the related target audience/s that we can begin to test and further refine'''
 
* '''Mapping our theory of change against this vision so each existing program is set up to drive impact'''
 
We will go after these goals in an open and collaborative manner, engaging our allies, partners and supporters as we define the issues we’ll focus on over the coming years -- and, of course looking, for ways to work together as we put this focus into action.
 
The outcomes of this work, including discussions with the board, will be used as part of our 2019+ strategic plan, with the expectation ~60% of resources towards a common goal developed through this process and maintain ~40% work on a long tail of internet health issues.
 
==== Criteria ====
 
Ambition: importance and scale
* Will this work have a real and meaningful impact on internet health?
* Does it have the potential for a ‘domino effect’ that unlocks secondary impacts?
* Will this impact be felt widely, either in terms of total number of people impacted or parts of the world that benefit?
 
Winability: likelihood of success
* Can we identify specific areas where we are likely to succeed?
* What are the dependencies to success? How many of these dependencies might we control or have influence over?
* Would limited success still be valuable and if so, how?
 
Momentum: some of our allies are already pursuing this goal
* Are others already making progress on some aspect of this problem?
* Who else needs to win for us to win? Are they already working on this?
* Are there things Mozilla could do to increase momentum or help unlock success in this area?
 
Resonance: current and potential resonance with public
* Is this an issue the public is already aware of? If so, who and in what geography?
* Are we addressing core concerns or values people have about life online?
* Is this issue likely to have broad public appeal?
 
Fit: leverages Mozilla’s brand, expertise and programs
* Does this work advance the principles of the Mozilla Manifesto?
* Can Mozilla bring a unique perspective, expertise or resources to this issue?
* Could existing staff, fellows and initiatives contribute significantly?
* Do we know where or how to leverage expertise around this work in places where we don’t have it already?
* Is this work likely to attract new allies, volunteers and community?
 
==== Possible Impact Goals ====
From July - November 2018 we worked with MoFo staff, fellows and partners to generate over a dozen
options for impact goals, which were then narrowed down to four. The impact goal we chose is:
 
* '''Better machine decision making''': we understand when machines are making decisions for us. We work alongside them and have a way to fix mistakes.
 
The three additional impact goal options we explored included:
* '''Online ad economy''': what we click on, look at or buy online isn’t used to influence or manipulate our behaviour without our consent.
* '''Respect online''': women or gender minorities are not afraid when they share opinions, ideas, or content online.
* '''Digital bodies''': we all control the digital copies of our face, voice and DNA.
 
You can see a more detailed brief that runs each of these options against the criteria [https://drive.google.com/file/d/1cExHEoEpaHKJhgTKWp2h50xvXMWeY76E/view here].
 
==== Selected impact goal: Better Machine Decision Making ====
 
Based on extensive engagement with staff, allies, experts and the board, it has been decided that ‘better machine decision making’ is the area to focus on. This goal was chosen because of the belief that it can:
 
* Leverage the ‘agenda setting’ influence by asking tough questions about AI and adding nuance and specificity to the public debate. 
* Focus work in an area of further impact, leveraging the work started across all program areas over the past three years. 
* Increase the number and quality of collaborations across Mozilla and the internet health movement by helping define specific areas to work with others to have impact. 
* Help reach more people through messages and calls to action by increasing the clarity, specificity and relevance of the messages. 
* Offer clear milestones and outputs to measure and report out on progress against the intended impact along the way. 
* Phase two of the impact project is designed to drive towards more specificity around the work and outcomes we’ll take on in pursuit of the goal of better machine decision making. 
 
=Timeline=
 
===== Q3 2018 =====
* Draft 5-10 impact statements and criteria
* Staff input & additions to existing impact statements and criteria   
* Strategy Retreat participants begin deeper analysis 
* External partners provide additional ideas and input on impact goals
 
===== Q4 2018 =====
* Draft short analysis for each impact goal 
* MozFest session, displays, and meetings to solicit feedback and ideas from our community
* Review & discuss process and progress with MoFo board program committee 
* Meet with additional internal/external partners and community members for feedback
* Exec team reviews final analyses; makes decision re: recommendation
* Discuss & get feedback during board meeting (Nov 15) 
* Staff and fellows engage with impact goal at All Hands
 
===== Q1 2019 =====
* Launch expert interviews
* Begin literature review
* Document existing & planned work around machine decision making 
* Develop comms & engagement strategy for staff, partners, and public 
* Complete literature review and identify gaps in understanding requiring additional research and/or commissioned reports 
* Continue expert interviews 
* Share updated issue summary, lit review and current/planned work with board
* Coding, analysis and synthesis of expert interviews   
* Synthesize list of possible better machine decision making outcomes, based on interviews, literature reviews & convenings 
 
===== Q2 2019 =====
* Gather input and feedback with staff, experts, and allies around high-potential outcomes for Theory of Change 
* Continue public and partner communication about process, learnings and opportunities to engage 
* Finalize 1-3 long-term outcomes for machine decision making for the theory of change overlay
* Fully introduce impact goal theory of change overlay with staff at All Hands
* Begin to map out use for 2020 planning
* Share impact goal theory with board

Latest revision as of 22:53, 6 March 2019

As of March 5th, 2019, this page has been replaced with Mozilla Foundation AI

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